Lacy Hunt
In inflation prices rise faster than wages. And when prices rise faster than wages that puts very heavy burden on modest and moderate income households. When you are facing these basic necessity cost increases, you begin to lose confidence in political leadership. Even though the GDP was in 1970s growing rapidly because of all the military expenditures (Vietnam war), vast majority of households were getting worse off.
In 1970s inflation dynamic had certain major components (in difference from 2021 flash recession): 1. Money supply growth did accelerate and we had 10% increase in the money supply in 1970s and it steadily went up. In that period the velocity of money was stable. When you get 10% increase in money and velocity is stable you get 10% increase in nominal GDP. There was another very critical element in the 1970s, we had the largest devaluation of the dollar in any decade in our history.
When you have rapid monetary growth and velocity is stable and policy is pushing the dollar down than what happens is in a lot of industries the price leader is a foreign producer. When the foreign producer raises prices the domestic producers have an umbrella under which to rise prices. Now the money supply is decelerating, the velocity of money is not only stable, it appears to be decelerating and moreover, unlike the 1970s when you had a massive unprecedented decadal devaluation in the dollar, the dollar is working its way higher. In 1970s you have to take into account what happened to the dollar. The other difference is that we had very powerful demographics. The average age in 1970s was 29. Today we are approaching 40. And we were very lightly indebted economy. The government sector debt was beginning to rise because of the Vietnam war, but the private sector debt was not rising.
Right now about 80% of households are suffering from a decline in their standard of living. Inflation is in base necessities like food and fuel. And for food and energy you don't have good substitutes. The share of basic necessities of modest and moderate income households in their total budget is much higher than the upper income households. And there is also an international effect. In the emerging economies of the World which have considerably less per capita income than we have. The percentage of their budgets for basic necessities is dramatically higher than it is in the US. And their currencies are falling. The commodities they buy are priced in dollars, the dollar is going up, for the emerging economies the impact on modest and moderate income households is very severe.
Inflation is a lagging economic indicator. When recession ends the inflation rate still goes lower. It is not until you get into a well advanced expansion that inflation goes up. When you are coming off a deep recession you need the inflation rate to fall for three reasons: 1. If you have inflation, prices rise faster than wages. If prices rise faster than wages, you immediately throw this adjustment onto the components of the society that are least able to deal with it. You undermine real wages (inflation is a regressive tax). In addition you need the prices to come down so that our manufacturers can sell more to the rest of the world, we need trade deficit to come down. When you have higher inflation you import more foreign goods so trade deficit is higher.
Companies are now stockpiling their inventories. They go from hand in hand inventory just in time, and when hand in hand doesn't work like because of a pandemic, they have more than sufficient inventories in case of problems in deliveries. They go from just in time to just in case. What we are seeing now is that firms are probably double or triple ordering and probably the same thing is happening with job postings. They do whatever they can to obtain employees. 2. You need lower interest rates. This causes nominal rates to fall, which boosts your interest sensitive sectors. There is a good reason that the inflation rate and interest rates need to fall in an early stage expansion.
Lacy Hunt school of thought tells you that housing and autos lead every economic cycle in and out of recession. In September 1969 the jobless claims print as low as we have recently, two months later the economy was in recession.
If inflation were to be sustained over long period of time it would take the bond yield with it. The critical issue is whether inflation is going to be sustained. I'm in the camp that it will not be sustained.
From 1870 to 2000 in real per capita terms we grew 2,2% per annum. There's tons of academic research that shows that by 2000 we became a heavily indebted economy and since 2000 we have became far more indebted. Academic researches showed that once you reach the excessive debt levels that we had at some point in the late 1990s to early 2000s we should lost about one third of our growth rate against trend. We were growing at 2,2% from 1870 to 2000 since than we're only growing 1,1% per annum. At the end of 2019 before the pandemic hit our real per capita GDP was 17% below trend, now we are at 23 or 24% bellow trend. We are falling further and further below the trend. When your growth rate of the standard of living starts falling, the income and wealth divides increase. With all the help from the governments, we're making us all collectively worse off.
When you coordinate monetary and fiscal policy (monetary policy was supposed to be independent of federal reserve policy) you didn't want the two central policymakers doubling up on policymakers. When you coordinate monetary and fiscal policy you move the total economy further and further in the direction of command and control. The influence of the government sector over the economy is becoming greater. The debt finance government multiplier is negative after three years, maybe sooner. Now it is negative 30 cents. If you engage in a dollar of debt financed activity, at the end of three years you get the increase in one dollar of debt finance something, but you lose private spending of dollar and thirty cents. When you go in the direction of command and control you reduce the private sector activity. The private sector has positive multipliers. When you increase command and control component, you increase the government activity and they have negative multipliers. When you move further and further into the direction of government control you get increasingly inferior economic results (the law of diminishing returns). The result is, we are falling further and further below the trend. Where are we taking the economy with these decisions? Are we making people better off by these decisions? The end result is that we are not.
The production function says that economic output is determined by technology interacting with land, labour and capital. If you begin to make use greater use of one of the factors of production such as debt capital initially economic output rises. We call that increasing returns. If you make further use of debt capital, GDP flattens out. It is called steady returns. And than if you still insist on using more debt capital, you go to negative returns. What the law of diminishing returns says is there is a phase in which debt can be used productively, than there is a phase when it is not effective, but it's not harmful. But now we are at the phase, where the overuse of debt capital is so great, that it is detrimental.
Velocity of money in the US peaked in 1997. Every new dollar of new money created two dollars and twenty cents of GDP. We're now down to one dollar and ten cents. In the EU velocity of money is 0,85. Each dollar of new M2 money is only creating 85 cents of new GDP. In Japan and in China the velocity of money is under 0,5 in both areas.
The average age in China is approaching 41. They had one child per family policy and they had more boy babies than girl babies. Every two years the average age in China is going to go up one year. We (USA) are at 39. Positive demographics have a major impact on economic growth and inflation. Negative demographics are huge anti-growth, anti-inflation force. The demographics work through investment on economic growth and inflation. Think about the cost of forming a household, raising children, and the investment that that requires, cost of educating the children, investment required by firms producing for growing households, investment that has to be made by state and local governments, you need more water and sewer, more schools. Demographics will not give us higher inflation because we have fewer bodies to produce, that effect is there but it will be overwhelmed.
If you give the FED the power to spend (FED has the power to lend, but not the power to spend) than in that case you will begin to get rampant inflation. In case of FED CBDC the US central bank will become the spender of last resort and in short order we would trigger Gresham's Law the bad money will chase out the good and inflation would take off. MMT has already been tried, tested and failed (in last recession governments sent support directly to the people). What happened is that the government debt levels have gone up and the net result is that the economic growth rates have gone down in real per capita terms. The key to economic prosperity is hard work, creativity, ingenuity and that's really the source of our wealth. It's not in some government program. Over-reliance on debt is not a solution. To make FED's liabilities legal tender is moving further into the direction of command and control. In the USSR was not shortage of Rubles, it was shortage of everything else.
Dual mandate of the FED: price stability mandate and labour mandate. Burns is charged with holding the interest rates unchanged and as economy started heating up in 1972 as a result of the major appreciation of the dollar and few other things that were marginally helpful, he had to keep increasing the money supply so the inflationary air pressure is built. The labour unions had made it very clear, that they would not agree to the wage controls unless prices, interests and dividends were controlled. When you meld the two, than you violate the basic fundamental purpose of keeping the federal reserve and fiscal policy makers separate, bad things happens. FED should be simply committed to keeping the inflation rate low. That is the most beneficial thing that you can do for employment and for the well-being and welfare of the overwhelming majority of your households. It may seem that you are more caring to have dual mandate, but if you really want to help the most people you keep the inflation rate low.
In 1970s inflation dynamic had certain major components (in difference from 2021 flash recession): 1. Money supply growth did accelerate and we had 10% increase in the money supply in 1970s and it steadily went up. In that period the velocity of money was stable. When you get 10% increase in money and velocity is stable you get 10% increase in nominal GDP. There was another very critical element in the 1970s, we had the largest devaluation of the dollar in any decade in our history.
When you have rapid monetary growth and velocity is stable and policy is pushing the dollar down than what happens is in a lot of industries the price leader is a foreign producer. When the foreign producer raises prices the domestic producers have an umbrella under which to rise prices. Now the money supply is decelerating, the velocity of money is not only stable, it appears to be decelerating and moreover, unlike the 1970s when you had a massive unprecedented decadal devaluation in the dollar, the dollar is working its way higher. In 1970s you have to take into account what happened to the dollar. The other difference is that we had very powerful demographics. The average age in 1970s was 29. Today we are approaching 40. And we were very lightly indebted economy. The government sector debt was beginning to rise because of the Vietnam war, but the private sector debt was not rising.
Right now about 80% of households are suffering from a decline in their standard of living. Inflation is in base necessities like food and fuel. And for food and energy you don't have good substitutes. The share of basic necessities of modest and moderate income households in their total budget is much higher than the upper income households. And there is also an international effect. In the emerging economies of the World which have considerably less per capita income than we have. The percentage of their budgets for basic necessities is dramatically higher than it is in the US. And their currencies are falling. The commodities they buy are priced in dollars, the dollar is going up, for the emerging economies the impact on modest and moderate income households is very severe.
Inflation is a lagging economic indicator. When recession ends the inflation rate still goes lower. It is not until you get into a well advanced expansion that inflation goes up. When you are coming off a deep recession you need the inflation rate to fall for three reasons: 1. If you have inflation, prices rise faster than wages. If prices rise faster than wages, you immediately throw this adjustment onto the components of the society that are least able to deal with it. You undermine real wages (inflation is a regressive tax). In addition you need the prices to come down so that our manufacturers can sell more to the rest of the world, we need trade deficit to come down. When you have higher inflation you import more foreign goods so trade deficit is higher.
Companies are now stockpiling their inventories. They go from hand in hand inventory just in time, and when hand in hand doesn't work like because of a pandemic, they have more than sufficient inventories in case of problems in deliveries. They go from just in time to just in case. What we are seeing now is that firms are probably double or triple ordering and probably the same thing is happening with job postings. They do whatever they can to obtain employees. 2. You need lower interest rates. This causes nominal rates to fall, which boosts your interest sensitive sectors. There is a good reason that the inflation rate and interest rates need to fall in an early stage expansion.
Lacy Hunt school of thought tells you that housing and autos lead every economic cycle in and out of recession. In September 1969 the jobless claims print as low as we have recently, two months later the economy was in recession.
If inflation were to be sustained over long period of time it would take the bond yield with it. The critical issue is whether inflation is going to be sustained. I'm in the camp that it will not be sustained.
From 1870 to 2000 in real per capita terms we grew 2,2% per annum. There's tons of academic research that shows that by 2000 we became a heavily indebted economy and since 2000 we have became far more indebted. Academic researches showed that once you reach the excessive debt levels that we had at some point in the late 1990s to early 2000s we should lost about one third of our growth rate against trend. We were growing at 2,2% from 1870 to 2000 since than we're only growing 1,1% per annum. At the end of 2019 before the pandemic hit our real per capita GDP was 17% below trend, now we are at 23 or 24% bellow trend. We are falling further and further below the trend. When your growth rate of the standard of living starts falling, the income and wealth divides increase. With all the help from the governments, we're making us all collectively worse off.
When you coordinate monetary and fiscal policy (monetary policy was supposed to be independent of federal reserve policy) you didn't want the two central policymakers doubling up on policymakers. When you coordinate monetary and fiscal policy you move the total economy further and further in the direction of command and control. The influence of the government sector over the economy is becoming greater. The debt finance government multiplier is negative after three years, maybe sooner. Now it is negative 30 cents. If you engage in a dollar of debt financed activity, at the end of three years you get the increase in one dollar of debt finance something, but you lose private spending of dollar and thirty cents. When you go in the direction of command and control you reduce the private sector activity. The private sector has positive multipliers. When you increase command and control component, you increase the government activity and they have negative multipliers. When you move further and further into the direction of government control you get increasingly inferior economic results (the law of diminishing returns). The result is, we are falling further and further below the trend. Where are we taking the economy with these decisions? Are we making people better off by these decisions? The end result is that we are not.
The production function says that economic output is determined by technology interacting with land, labour and capital. If you begin to make use greater use of one of the factors of production such as debt capital initially economic output rises. We call that increasing returns. If you make further use of debt capital, GDP flattens out. It is called steady returns. And than if you still insist on using more debt capital, you go to negative returns. What the law of diminishing returns says is there is a phase in which debt can be used productively, than there is a phase when it is not effective, but it's not harmful. But now we are at the phase, where the overuse of debt capital is so great, that it is detrimental.
Velocity of money in the US peaked in 1997. Every new dollar of new money created two dollars and twenty cents of GDP. We're now down to one dollar and ten cents. In the EU velocity of money is 0,85. Each dollar of new M2 money is only creating 85 cents of new GDP. In Japan and in China the velocity of money is under 0,5 in both areas.
The average age in China is approaching 41. They had one child per family policy and they had more boy babies than girl babies. Every two years the average age in China is going to go up one year. We (USA) are at 39. Positive demographics have a major impact on economic growth and inflation. Negative demographics are huge anti-growth, anti-inflation force. The demographics work through investment on economic growth and inflation. Think about the cost of forming a household, raising children, and the investment that that requires, cost of educating the children, investment required by firms producing for growing households, investment that has to be made by state and local governments, you need more water and sewer, more schools. Demographics will not give us higher inflation because we have fewer bodies to produce, that effect is there but it will be overwhelmed.
If you give the FED the power to spend (FED has the power to lend, but not the power to spend) than in that case you will begin to get rampant inflation. In case of FED CBDC the US central bank will become the spender of last resort and in short order we would trigger Gresham's Law the bad money will chase out the good and inflation would take off. MMT has already been tried, tested and failed (in last recession governments sent support directly to the people). What happened is that the government debt levels have gone up and the net result is that the economic growth rates have gone down in real per capita terms. The key to economic prosperity is hard work, creativity, ingenuity and that's really the source of our wealth. It's not in some government program. Over-reliance on debt is not a solution. To make FED's liabilities legal tender is moving further into the direction of command and control. In the USSR was not shortage of Rubles, it was shortage of everything else.
Dual mandate of the FED: price stability mandate and labour mandate. Burns is charged with holding the interest rates unchanged and as economy started heating up in 1972 as a result of the major appreciation of the dollar and few other things that were marginally helpful, he had to keep increasing the money supply so the inflationary air pressure is built. The labour unions had made it very clear, that they would not agree to the wage controls unless prices, interests and dividends were controlled. When you meld the two, than you violate the basic fundamental purpose of keeping the federal reserve and fiscal policy makers separate, bad things happens. FED should be simply committed to keeping the inflation rate low. That is the most beneficial thing that you can do for employment and for the well-being and welfare of the overwhelming majority of your households. It may seem that you are more caring to have dual mandate, but if you really want to help the most people you keep the inflation rate low.
Jared Dillian in Peter Atwater
- Kaj ustavi pretok denarja iz obvezniških trgov v delniške? En razlog za ta pretok je v inflaciji, drugi razlog je ta, da vedno več ljudi prodaja obveznice in beži iz gotovine ter investira v delnice. To povzroča pritisk na obresti, ker zaradi vedno nižjih obresti dolžniški instrumenti niso več zanimivi za investitorje.
- FED bo leta 2022 dvignil obrestne mere vsaj 4 krat. Obrestna mera se bo dvignila na 2% in bo močno obrnila obrestno krivuljo. In ko imamo enkrat obrnjeno krivuljo, ura začne odštevati. Za tem imamo med nič in osemnajst mesecev, da nas doleti recesija.
- Takoj ko bo Powel priznal, da imflacija ni prehodna, bo postala prehodna.
- Kaj, če bi bila obrestna mera merilo zaupanja v FED in centralne banke na splošno? Če pogledamo nazaj v 1980ta leta zaupanja v centralne banke, da se spopadejo z inflacijo, skoraj ni bilo. Takrat so obrestne zrasle enormno. Od takrat naprej pa vidimo kako zaupanje raste. Ko imamo CPI pri 6,8% in obresti na 10 letno obveznico pri 1,5%, nam trg pravi, da bo FED uspešen pri znižanju inflacije v nekem obdobju.
- 75% vseh opcij, s katerimi se trguje na NASDAQu je Teslinih.
Ekonomska projekcija FED december 2021
Vir: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20211215.pdf
Ray Dalio: The Changing World Order: The New Paradigm
- Svetovni red se spreminja, kar se je v zgodovini že velikokrat zgodilo. Paradigme, okolja v katerem živimo, se navadno spreminjajo približno na deset let z občasnimi vmesnimi velikimi korekcijami. Ponavadi je ena paradigma nasprotna naslednji. Vesela 1920ta leta so nasledila depresivna 1930ta. In inflacijskim 1970tim so sledila deflaciijska 1980ta. V različnih situacijah želiš imeti različne stvari in stvari, ki jih nočeš imeti: v 1920ih je bil čas za delnice in izogibanje obveznicam, v 1930ih je bilo čisto nasprotno, v 1970ih bi si želel zlato in se izogibal obveznicam in v 1980ih je bil čas za delnice, obveznice, gotovino vendar ne za zlato in ostale plemenite kovine.
- Trnutno paradigmo zaznamuje vodilna država (ZDA):
- - troši veliko več denarja kot ga zasluži,
- - ima velike premoženjske, vrednotvene in politične razlike, kateri vodijo v konflikte in
- - je v upadu glede na drugo najmočnejšo državo.
- Zadnjič, ko smo videli kombinacijo takih dogodkov, je bilo med leti 1930 in 1945.
- V nadaljevanju se osredotoča na tri stvari:
- 1. Visok dolg in monetizacija dolga, še posebej v državi s svetovno rezervno valuto.
- 2. Notranji konflikti glede razlik v premoženju.
- 3. Zunanji konflikti, še posebej vzpon nove države (Kitajska), ki izziva obstoječo (ZDA).
Visok dolg in monetizacija dolga
Tiskanje denarja in kupovanje dolga sta pripeljala obresti tako nizko, da kupovati obveznic nima smisla
Koliko let potrebuje neka investicija v obveznice, gotovino ali delnice, da se povrne? Za gotovino med 100 let in nikoli, za obveznice med 50 let in nikoli in za delnice do 25 let
Da nekdo dolg kupi, ga mora nekdo prodati; kaj, če bi tisti nekdo začel dolg prodajati, ker si ga ne želi več imeti
Delež finančnih sredstev v primerjavi z realnimi je visok
V takšnih časih je nemogoče varčevati v gotovini
Ameriški republikanci so bolj desno usmerjeni in demokrati so bolj levo usmerjeni, razlika je velika
Trošenje vlade se bo povečalo; davki se bodo dvignili, toda to še vedno ne bo dovolj za pokritje vseh izdatkov
Od leta 1500 si sledijo nizozemski, britanski in ameriški imperiji, ameriškega že lovi kitajski
Vir: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/changing-world-order-new-paradigm-ray-dalio/?published=t
Jon Cropper
- Dve osnovni filozofiji, ki se jih je naučil od Quincy Jonesa in sta mu spremenili življenje:
- - njegovo življenjsko poslanstvo je, vlivanje optimizma v skupnost; vsi, ki delajo v prvih vrstah tehnološkega razvoja in inovacij imajo odgovornost biti optimisti in vnašati pozitivnost v skupnost.
- - moč lepe zgodbe; vsa vrednost temelji na zgodbi; celotna vrednost, o kateri govorimo v povezavi s prihodnostjo temelji na tem, koliko kdo verjame, da je vredno in ne koliko je vredno. Tvoja vera v nekaj temelji v eleganci in kakovosti povedane zgodbe.
- Ko je delal za Aston Martin: Blagovna znamka ni stvar ali storitev, ne prodajajo stroja, prodajajo občutek, ki ti ga ponuja stroj.
- Večina novodobnih inovacij, v katerih uživamo danes, so začele nastajati v majhnih skupinah ljudi, ki so zadevo razvijali, jo testirali in nazadnje jo dodelali do te mere, da je danes uporabna za množice. Bugatti Veyron je avto vreden 3 mio USD in samo nekaj 100 takih vozil se vozi po svetu. 300 zelo bogatih ljudi je kupilo ta avto. Toda namen avta je bil samo izvajati raziskave in razvoja za skupino Volkswagen. Te inovacije danes vidimo na različnih njihovih avtomobilih.
- Ko govori o posamezni blagovni znamki, je potrebno gledati na naslednjih 7 korakov. Izhajajo iz besede SEDUCTION, kar pomeni zapeljevanje, napeljevanje. O tem je napisal knjigo.
- - S za samodefiniranje oz. samozavedanje. Brez samodefinicije ne moremo prispevati k nekemu odnosu v družbi.
- - E za okolje. Najprej moramo razumeti določeno skupnost s katero delamo, predvsem biti dober poslušalec, imeti vklučen radar za vse kar se v zvezi s to skupino dogaja.
- - D za obliko. Pomeni kako izgledate ali izgleda, ne glede na to ali je to predsedniški kandidat ali avto.
- - U za razumevanje. Biti dober poslušalec in razumeti ljudi, s katerimi želiš vzpostaviti razmerje.
- - C za komunikacijo. Kakovost povedane zgodbe.
- - T za zaupanje. Moraš narediti kar obljubiš. Če odstopiš od tega, si izgubil zaupanje.
- - I za inspiracijo. Dobre znamke in dobri ljudje navdihujeje druga druge.
- - O za odprtost. Gre za velikodušnost in pripravljenost deliti dokler ne boli.
- - N za omrežje. lahko imaš najboljše ideje, vendar če nihče ne bo vedel zanje, je vse delo zaman.
Ichimoku Kinki Hyo: Smer linij in prepoznavanje trenda
- Pri prepznavanju trenda se moramo osredotočiti na smer linij. Ali linije potekajo od leve navzgor proti desni ali od leve navzdol proti desni. Če linije potekajo od leve navzgor proti desni in so v vrstnem redu, kot je prikazano na spodnji sliki, to pomeni trend navzgor. Če linije potekajo od leve navzdol proti desni in so v vrstnem redu, kot je prikazano na spodnji sliki, pomeni trend navzdol. Linije pa se lahko tudi prepletajo in potekajo od leve naravnost proti desni pa pomeni, da trenda ni in se tečaji pomikajo vstran.
- Na prvi sliki vidimo, če gledamo v smeru puščice, kako si sledijo linije v naraščajočem trendu. Linije so v naslednjem vrstnem redu (gledano od zgoraj navzdol):
- - Chiko Span,
- - Tenkan Sen,
- - Kijun Sen,
- - Senko Span 1 in
- - Senko Span 2.
- Na drugi sliki vidimo, kako si linije sledijo v padajočem trendu. Linije potekajo zrcalno glede na linije pri naraščajočem trendu. Linije so v naslednjem vrstnem redu (gledano od zgoraj navzdol):
- - Senko Span 2,
- - Senko Span 1,
- - Kijun Sen,
- - Tenkan Sen in
- - Chiko Span.
- Na tretji sliki pa vidimo situacijo, kjer nimamo trenda. Vse linije se prepletajo in velikokrat križajo. To nam kaže, da se tečaji pomikajo vstran brez izrazitega trenda.
Kaj je inflacija
Kaj je inflacija? Invsetopedia o inflaciji piše naslednje: Inflacija je upad kupne moči določene valute skozi čas. Upad kupne moči se kaže kot povprečna rast cen košarice izbranih izdelkov in storitev na trgu skozi čas.
- Inflacija je stopnja, pri kateri vrednost valute pada in posledično splošna raven cen izdelkov in storitev raste. To pomeni, da boste jutri za enak znesek lahko kupili manj blaga in storitev. V šoli so nas učili, da se cena na trgu oblikuje na podlagi ponudbe in povpraševanja. Kjer se srečata pponudba in povpraševanje, se oblikuje cena. Če se ponudba poveča, se cena zniža in obratno. Če se povpraševanje poveča, se cena poveča in obratno. Torej, cena na trgu vedno najde ravnotežje. Ko ravnotežje pporušimo, lahko se to zgodi na strani ponudbe ali pa na strani povpraševanja, se cena spremeni. Če se spremeni navzgor to imenujemo inflacija, če pa navzdol pa to imenujemo deflacija. Ampak nekaj mora porušiti to ravnotežje. Lahko so to motnje v nabavnih verigah ali pa povečanje razpoložljivega dohodka ljudi. Lahko se zgodi tudi oboje hkrati, ali pa je eno posledica drugega. Kar se dogaja zadnje čase je posledica povečanega razpoložljivega dohodka ljudi, kar posledično vpliva tudi na prekinitve v dobavnih verigah.
- Inflacija je za prebivalce lahko pozitivna ali negativna, odvisno od posameznika. Za lastnika premoženja (nepremeičnine, plemenite kovine,...) je inflacija lahko dobrodošla. Za tiste, ki varčujejo v valuti pa inflacije niso veseli, ker inflacija znižuje vrednost njihove valute. Inflacija se ne odraža vedno samo v povišanju cen življenjskih potrebščin, ampak tudi v povečanju cen ostalih dobrin. Vrednost valute se zniža v primerjavi z vrednostjo nepremičnin, plemenitih kovin in delnic. Ali drugače povedano, cene navedenih dobrin rastejo.
- V idealnih pogojih se pričakuje nizka inflacija, ki do določene mere pospešuje potrošnjo in odvrača ljudi od varčevanja ter tako omogoči gospodarsko rast. Evropska centralna banka ima to mejo postavljeno pri 2%. Prav tako FED. Zakaj ravno 2%? Nimam pojma zakaj, vem pa, da je vsaka, tudi 2% inflacija, previsoka. Zakaj sploh potrebujemo inflacijo? Zato da ne varčujemo ampak zapravljamo? Če se vam danes pokvari hladilnik, boste danes kupili novega. Verjetno ne boste čakali eno leto, da ga boste dobili 50 EUR ceneje. To verjetno ni razlog. Banke so vsekakor vesele inflacije. Ko je višja inflacija, so tudi obresti, po katerih vam posodijo denar, višje. S tem, da za vaše vloge na ta račun ne dobite višjih obresti. Tudi država ima nekaj od tega, ker pri višjih cenah pobere več davka.
Tisti, ki ima od te inflacije najmanj, smo mi, ki varčujemo v valuti. Zato pa gredo vrednosti nepremičnin, plemenitih kovin, kripto valut, delnic, umetniških del in še česa v nebo.
Komunizem v baltskih državah 2. del
Od prvega trenutka, ko so zavzeli nove države, so komunisti začeli
izločati člane različnih skupin, ki so jih zaprli v kampe za prisilno
delo, prevzgojo ali takojšnjo usmrtitev. Začelo se je z dekozakifikacijo
v Rusiji in Ukrajini pod Leninom, kasneje z dekulafikacijo v istih
državah pod Stalinom.
Med prvo sovjetsko okupacijo med 1940 in 1941 je Sovjetsko ljudsko
sodišče obsodilo 179 ljudi na smrt, okoli 2200 so jih ubili brez
sojenja. Večino je ubila tajna policija NKVD ali bataljoni za uničenje v
zaporih Tartu in Kuressaare.
Komunisti so 190 trupel skrili v vodnjaku na dvorišču policijske
postaje. Nekaj desetletij kasneje, so na istem dvorišču posebej
usposobljeni psi lajali proti Estoncem, ki so zahtevali svobodi in
končanje komunističnega terorja.
Med celotnim sovjetskim obdobjem je bilo prepovedano vsakršno pisanje in
poročanje o komunističnih ubojih. Vendar pa je jeseni leta 1988 v
javnost prišla novica očividca: „Kolikor vem, so samo tri ustrelili in
jih skrili v vodnjak.”Vsi ostali so bili mučeni do smrti. Teh je bilo
okoli 100. Nihče ne ve točne številke.” Metode mučenja so bile različne;
enemu so odrezali ustnice, drugemu nos, jezik, ušesa,… Veliko jih je
imelo poparjene noge, nekatri eno, drugi obe. Nekateri so imeli
odstranjeno kožo, nekateri roke zvite na hrbet in zvezane z žico. Ženki
so odrezali prsi. Bil sem tam, ko so trupla odstranjevali iz kleti.
Prišlo je na tisoče ljudi, iskat svoje najbližje. Veliko jih je našlo.
Teror, katerega so izvajali Sovjeti ni izviral v uporu ljudi Baltskih
držav, kar so zatrjevali komunisti. Bilo je ravno obratno. Baltska
gverila se je borila proti sovjetskim okupacijskim silam zaradi
njihovega nasilja nad civilnim prebivalstvom.
Jeseni 1939, skoraj leto dni pred okupacijo, je general Ivan Serov
podpisal ukaz o množični deportaciji iz Baltskih držav. Proti sovjetski
elementi so morali biti odstranjeni in poslani v sovjetske kampe. Med
skupinami, ki so bile posebej omenjene so bile vse nekomunistične
skupine (Socialni demokrati, socialisti,…), ljudje izključeni iz
komunističnih organizacij, vojaki in člani Domače straže, višji vladni
uradniki in diplomati, sodniki in tožilci, trgovci in lastniki velikih
hiš in hotelov, ljudje, ki so bili zaposleni v tujih družbah ter drugi s
stalnimi stiki s tujci, bližnji duhovnikov in tistih, ki so pobegnili
na zahod.
V 24 urah so iz Estonije deportirali 9250 oseb, iz Latvije 15081 in iz
Litve okoli 13600. Skupaj okoli 38000 oseb. Tajna policija ni rabil
razloga za aretacijo sredi noči. Družinski člani so morali slediti
obtoženemu, tudi dojenčki, starejši in bolani. S tovornjaki so bili
prepeljani na najbližjo železniško postajo. Tam so ločili moške od žensk
in otrok. Pogosto je trajalo več dni preden so jih prepeljali v
koncentracijska taborišča v Sibiriji.
Sovjeti in komunisti so ta dejanja opravičevali na različne načine.
Trdili so, da je nekomunistična oblas med obema vojnama preganjala
komuniste. Tako je bilo edino pošteno ali vsaj logično in razumljivo, da
v povračilo isto naredijo njim. Estonci so res leta 1924 aretirali 258
oseb, ki so hoteli odstaviti demokratično izvoljeno vlado.
Trdili so tudi, da je države potrebno odstraniti vse anti-sovjetske
elemente. Na dan, ko so se začele deportacije, je časopis Pravda objavil
novico, ki jo je posredovala agencija TASS, da Nemčija načrtuje napad
na SZ. Od vseh deportiranih je bilo samo 21,5% moških starih med 20 in
49, tistih, ki bi bili zares sposobni za boj. Načrt oblasti je bil vse
prej kot boj proti anti-komunistov. Skozi celotno zgodovino, so bili
Baltski Nemci smatrani kot zgodovinski sovražnik, ko pa so doživeli ta
šok, so jih, potem, ko so jih okupirali Nemci, smatrali za
osvoboditelje. Toda kmalu so se izkazali kot enako neusmiljeni kot
komunisti.
Med deportiranimi je bilo okoli 400 Judov. Judi so bili večkrat bolj
preganjani kot druge skupine. V Estoniji je židovska populacija
predstavljala 0,4% celotne populacije, toda 4% vseh deportiranih je bilo
Židov. V Litvi jih je bilo 1/12 populacije in 1/5 vseh deportiranih.
Prvi deportaciji naj bi sledili še druga in tretja. Druga je bila
planirana mesec kasneje, julija 1941, vendar je bil prodor Nemcev tako
hiter, da je bataljonom za uničenje ni uspelo začeti. Otok Saaremaa je
Nemcem uspelo zavzeti kasneje, zato so Sovjeti tam že začeli z drugo
deportacijo. Glede na dogajanje na otoku, naj bi bili 2. in 3. veliko
bolj intenzivni in števičnejši.
Eden od deprtirancev je bil mlad fant, ki je v dnevnik zabeležil vse,
kar se je taborišču dogajalo vse do dneva leta 1944, ko mu je zmanjkalo
papirja. Fanta in mati so ločili od očeta. Opisoval je vse, kar se je
zgodilo v njegovem življenju tam. Kako so prijatelji eden za drugim
umirali zaradi lakote, kako je nekdo ukradel kormpir in so ga za kazen
zaprli v ječo, kako sta z materjo jedla juho iz kopriv,… Vsak tretji ali
četrti zapis se je končal z vprašanjem: “Oče, kje si?”
Med deprtiranimi je bilo 8 bivših predsednikov in 38 ministrov iz
Estonije, 3 bivši predsedniki in 15 ministrov Latvije ter predsednik, 5
predsednikov vlad in 24 ministrov Litve. Med Nacistično okupacijo
Baltskih držav je bilo ubitih okoli 6600 Estoncev, med njimi skoraj 1000
Židov in 243 Romov. Ubili so tudi več kot 36000 sovjetskih vojnih
ujetnikov, ki so jih ujeli med boji za Estonijo.
V Latviji je bilo ubitih okoli 80000 ljudi, od tega skoraj 70000 Židov,
ki so ostali v državi. Komunistični in nacistični okupatorji so
mobilizirali skoraj 250000Latvijcev, od tega jih je 100000 umrlo v
bojih.
V Litvi je bilo ubitih skoraj 100000 Židov. Delež židovskega
prebivalstva je padel iz predvojnih 8% celotne populacije na 1%. Samo
20000 jih je preživelo holokaust. Pred drugo sovjetsko okupacijo jeseni
1944 je okoli 300.000 Baltov pobegnilo na Zahod. Večina Estoncev jih je
šla preko morja na Švedsko in Finsko, večina Litvancev in Latvijcev pa v
Nemčijo. Na tisoče so jih države poslale nazaj v okupirano domovino.
Protikomunistična gverilska vojna v Litvi je bila najdaljša in najbolj
razširjena v povojni Evropi. Vendar je malkdo izven Litve vedel zanjo.
Sovjeti so v proti-gverilskem boju ubili okoli 25.000 Litvancev. Da bi
končali gverilsko vojno so Sovjeto maja 1948 več kot 41.000 Litvancev
deportirali.
Marca 1949 se je zgodba predvojnih deportacij začela ponavljati. Skupno število žrtev komunistične represije je bil naslednji:
Skoraj 192.000 ljudi arteiranih, usmrčenih ali deportiranih v
Latviji, kar je okoli 15% populacije leta 1959. Številka je verjetno
višja, saj aretacije in deportacije v začetnih letih okupacije niso
štete.Okoli 360.000 žrtev je bilo v Litvi.
V Estoniji okoli 130.000 umrlih, 80.000 mobiliziranih ali
evakuiranih in poslanih v Rusijo, 70.000 ljudi, ki so živeli na
področjih, ki so bili ločeni od Estonije in priključeni Rusiji. Medtem, ko je bilo veliko Estoncev, Latvijcev in Litvancev
deportiranih, se je v te države priselilo veliko Rusov, Belorusov in
Ukrajincev, verjetno proti svoji volji. Posledica je bila močno
zmanjšanje domače populacije. Leta 1938 je bilo v Estoniji 93% vse populacije estonske; 60 let
kasneje je delež padel na 60%. Nobena druga evropska država ni doživela
takšne izgube domače populacije kot Estonija. Do 1990ih še niso dosegli
predokupacijskega števila Estoncev. Za čas komunizma je morala sprejeto
več kot 7 mio imigrantov, večinoma Rusov, ki se nikoli niso vživeli v
družbo, niti se niso naučili jezika. Situacija v Latviji se v veliki meri ni razlikovala od estonske. V
začetku 1990ih je v Latviji živelo 100.000 Latvijcev manj kot pred 2.
svetovno vojno. Delež Latvijcev se je zmanjšal iz 82 na 52%. V Rigi vsak
tretji meščan ni bil Latvijec, v drugem največjem mesti Daugavpils pa
samo vsak osmi.
(hjalmarsonstiftelsen.se)
Uvod v Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (IKH) je še eden od mnogo tehničnih pripomočkov pri prepoznavanju trenda. Na prvi pogled, zaradi veliko črt in barv, izgleda zelo zakompliciran, vendar ni. Na zelo enostaven način pokaže v katero smer poteka trend in s tem pomaga pri vsakdanjih investicijskih odločitvah. O njem je veliko napisanega in posnetega, vendar je veliko stvari, ki so zgolj približne in ne dajo celovite slike. Nekateri analitiki pri svojem delu uporabljajo samo dele tega indikatorja ali ga kombinirajo z drugimi. Vsekakor je to stvar vsakega posameznika, najpomembneje je, da je celoten sistem indikatorjev učinkovit in daje vpogled v dogajanje na trgih.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo sestavlja 5 črt (zaradi šuma v prevodu bom uporabljal originalne nazive):
- Tenkan Sen (TS),
- Kijun Sen (KS),
- Chiko Span (CS),
- Senko Span 1 (SS1) in
- Senko Span 2 (SS2).
Prostor med SS1 in SS2 imenujemo Kumo.
Kako je nastal Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
Ichimoku Kinko hyo je orodje tehnične analize finančnih trgov. Njegov oče je Goichi Hosoda, direktor ekonomskega oddelka japonskega časopisa Miyako. V tistem času je bil Miyako zelo osredotočen na analize trgov in njegova kolumna je bila med tržnimi analitiki zelo priljubljena. S finančnimi trgi pa se je Goichi Hosoda srečal že prej. Z analizami in trgovanjem na finančnih trgih je začel že pri 12 letih in bil od takrat uspešen analitik.
Svojo prvo kolumno je leta 1935 objavil prav v časopisu Miyako pod imenom Shinto Tenkan Sen. Grafi in kalkulacije so ostale skrivnost. Kmalu so ga analitiki začeli spraševati na kakšen način pride do svojih zaklučkov in ga prosili, da jim razkrije skrivnosti analiziranja. Leta 1950 se je odločil, da bo to skrivnost razkril 3 ljudem ob dogovoru, da tehnike ne bodo razkrili naslednjih 10 let. Eden od njih je bil predsednik večjega sklada na Japonskem, ostala dva sta neznana.
Okoli 20 let kasneje je na Japonskem uradno izšlo 7 knjig, ki so govorile o analiziranju finančnih trgov s pomočjo tehnike Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. Tako je znanje začelo pronicati v javnost, kar je povzročilo pravi Ichimoku Kinko Hyo bum. Po desetletjih testiranja je ta tehnika osvojila tudi svet. Od sedmih knjig je mogoče kupiti samo štiri, ostale tri so dosegljive v njihovi narodni knjižnici in jih je mogoče brati, vendar ne tudi kupiti.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo je bil izumljen leta 1935. V tistem obdobju ni bilo na voljo veliko tehnik tehnične analize finančnih inštrumentov. Japonski svečniki so bili uporabljeni že veliko prej, v sredini 18. stol. Stohastiki so prišli v uporabo v 1950ih, drseča povprečja v 1960ih, večina orodij pa šele v 1970ih in 1980ih.
Dolgoletna uporaba orodja Ichimoku Kinko Hyo kot orodja za tehnično analizo je pokazala učinkovitost tega ordja, ki se danes uporablja na različnih tgih po celem svetu.
Goichi Hosoda (Vir: internet)